Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 36 (NeurIPS 2023) Main Conference Track
Yaroslav Kivva, Saber Salehkaleybar, Negar Kiyavash
We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable.Several methods (such as difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator or negative outcome control) have been proposed in this setting in the literature. However, these approaches require either restrictive assumptions on the data generating model or having access to at least two proxy variables.We propose a method to estimate the causal effect using cross moments between the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy variable. In particular, we show that the causal effect can be identified with simple arithmetic operations on the cross moments if the latent confounder in linear SCM is non-Gaussian.In this setting, DiD estimator provides an unbiased estimate only in the special case where the latent confounder has exactly the same direct causal effects on the outcomes in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases. This translates to the common trend assumption in DiD, which we effectively relax.Additionally, we provide an impossibility result that shows the causal effect cannot be identified if the observational distribution over the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy is jointly Gaussian. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the effectivenessof the proposed approach in estimating the causal effect.