Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 37 (NeurIPS 2024) Main Conference Track
Sainyam Galhotra, Joseph Halpern
Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems andidentifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causalmodels are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation offormulas involving interventions pose significant challenges.In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range ofprobabilities. We show that by making simple yetoften realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (includingthe well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate.Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate,these probability estimates can be evaluated usingobservational data, which carries immense significance in scenarioswhere conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.